Commercial aviation is poised for robust growth, with passenger demand projected to grow by approximately 4% annually through 2030. This steady expansion is supported by several key factors, including:
- A positive macroeconomic outlook and an expanding middle class in developing countries, driving stronger consumer spending and broadening the base of future air travellers
- Increasing market penetration of low-cost carriers (LCCs), making air travel more accessible and affordable, and thereby increasing the adoption and frequency of air travel among broader population segments
LCCs have long positioned themselves as disruptors by stripping out frills and focusing on price. However, the sector is undergoing a clear strategic evolution. As LCCs pivot towards hybrid models — combining ultra-low-cost efficiency with selective premiumisation — the demands on onboard experience are shifting significantly. Connectivity is central to this transformation.
For full-service carriers (FSCs), ancillaries are also becoming an increasingly important part of the revenue model, as well as seeking improvements in customer experience and engagement. All of which can be enhanced by connectivity.
Three forces underpin this trend. First, ancillary revenue growth remains critical. With unbundling strategies now mature, carriers are leveraging digital platforms to offer targeted retail, dynamic pricing and subscription products.
Second, passenger mix is diversifying. Beyond budget millennials, LCCs are serving more corporate flyers and FSCs are increasingly serving premium leisure travellers, while both are facing digitally savvy new generations. Each segment carries distinct service expectations, from seamless digital transactions to premium seating.
Third, competitive differentiation is increasingly tied to customer experience rather than fares alone. Premium seating, entertainment bundles and digital schemes are expanding. Onboard Wi-Fi and app-enabled engagement will be essential to deliver these higher-margin offerings.
In recent years, onboard spend opportunities have become a critical area; however, progress has been constrained by limited in-flight connectivity. The imminent arrival of high-speed, low-cost satellite connectivity represents a paradigm shift for commercial aviation, unlocking a new wave of opportunities.
Airlines will increasingly expect connectivity providers not only to supply bandwidth, but to enable holistic digital platforms that generate onboard ancillary revenue (i.e. in-flight retail and entertainment, e-commerce, etc.) and capture value from operational benefits (i.e. crew productivity, real-time routing planning).
For investors and providers alike, the question has shifted from whether connectivity will become universal to who will best positioned to capture the value it unlocks.
A market at an inflection point
Historically, onboard Wi-Fi was constrained by geostationary satellite technology: costly, heavy and slow. This kept adoption limited to premium cabins or long-haul fleets.
Today, the increasing number of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites and new antenna developments are changing the economics and the onboard experience (see Figure 1):
- Latency is significantly reduced, enabling high-speed onboard connectivity
- Onboard antenna costs have fallen to c.€250k per aircraft (versus €0.5–1m historically)
- Retrofit times have been cut from a week to less than 24 hours, minimising downtime
- Lightweight designs (30–60 kg) now make connectivity feasible for narrowbody fleets, the backbone of global aviation





